Showing posts with label NCAA Soccer. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NCAA Soccer. Show all posts

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

There is no such thing as a collegiate forward prospect

For the past week or so, I've become absolutely enamored with a pair of books dealing with sports, conventional wisdom, hard data, and how data chooses scissors when wisdom chooses paper nearly every time.

The first book - Baseball Between the Numbers - is, unsurprisingly, about baseball.

The second book - Soccernomics - is, you guessed it, about soccer.

Two entirely different sports, sure. But the common thread is the contrarian approach the authors take toward each sport's conventional thinking. In fact, each use hard data to obliterate many of the "truths" that many of us have been conditioned to believe as gospel. The result: The sacrifice bunt is a wasted out. High profile transfers are almost always huge wastes of money. And owning a football/soccer club is a great way to lose lots of money.

This had me thinking: what other myths exists within soccer - specifically, MLS - that could be debunked?

Lucky for you, I've thought of one, completely free of charge.

***

Goalscorers don't grow on trees. Or college campuses for that matter. It's a fact of life. Hot models end up with ugly men, and Danny Ocean always gets the best of Terry Benedict.

What's that you say? You can't find a good forward from academia in the first round? Surely, I jest. Alas, I jest not.

Rather than bore you with how much free time I had on my hands to devise this theory, I'll take you straight to the data. First, let's look at the strikers taken in the past five first rounds (along with their overall selection number) of MLS SuperDraft (2010 draft not included) for reference.

2009
Steve Zakuani (1st overall)
O'Brien White (3rd)
Peri Marisevic (4th)

2008
Patrick Nyarko (7th)

2007
John Cunliffe (7th)
Jerson Monteiro (8th)

2006
Jason Garey (3rd)
Yura Movsisyan (4th)
Sacha Kljestan (5th)
Kei Kamara (9th)
Calen Carr (10th)

2005
Scott Sealy (11th)

It's ironic that first round striker taken the latest of the bunch - Sealy at the 11th position - is the only one to rack up a double-digit goal totals in a season (10 for KC in 2006) after netting nine during his rookie season. But injuries caught up with him quickly, and his goal totals dropped precipitously after the ten-goal season. In 2009, he took his services abroad and was forgotten faster than the Eric Bana Hulk movie.

Movsisyan was a tremendous player for a surprising Salt Lake squad last season before being transferred out to Randers in the Danish League. There was no question the man had talent. Yet, he never exceeded more than eight goals a season in his four-year MLS career.

The only other notable name is Kljestan, who went on to become the Best XI attacking midfielder we've all come to know and love. Nyarko is an interesting player who seems to have settled on the cusp of stardom going on three years. There's little doubt he possesses the tools required (speed, toughness and touch) to become a poor man's Jozy Altidore. Whether or not it was Hamlet's propensity to use Brian McBride and Cuahtemoc Blanco as his main men, Nyarko hasn’t managed to rake in either of his two seasons. Meanwhile, Garey is a withdrawn forward on a club that’s collected bushels of goals in the past two seasons.

The rest? The verdicts are still out on Zakuani, White, and Marisevic. Carr and Kamara are certified super subs, while Cunliffe and Monteiro are out of the league completely.

Now, let's look at the Top 10 goalscorers of the same seasons.

2009
Jeff Cunningham-17
Conor Casey-16
Fredy Montero-12
Landon Donovan -12
Robbie Findley -12
Guillermo Barros Schelotto -12
Juan Pablo Angel -12
Dwayne De Rosario -11
Ryan Johnson -11
Josh Wolff - 11


2008
Landon Donovan-20
Kenny Cooper-18
Edson Buddle-15
Juan Pablo Angel-14
Brian Ching-13
Conor Casey-11
Luciano Emilio-11
Jaime Moreno-10
Chad Barrett-9
Alejandro Moreno-9
Chris Rolfe-9

2007
Luciano Emilio-20
Juan Pablo Angel-19
Taylor Twellman -16
Eddie Johnson-15
Maykel Galindo-12
Ante Razov-11
Christian Gomez-10
Jozy Altidore-9
Landon Donovan-8
Robbie Findley-8

2006
Jeff Cunningham-16
Christian Gomez-14
Ante Razov-14
Carlos Ruiz-13
Landon Donovan-12
Brian Ching-11
Kenny Cooper-11
Dwayne De Rosario-11
Jaime Moreno-11
Taylor Twellman-11

2005
Taylor Twellman-17
Jaime Moreno-16
Jeff Cunningham-12
Landon Donovan-12
Christian Gomez-11
Herculez Gomez-11
Amado Guevara-11
Carlos Ruiz-11
Clint Dempsey-10
Youri Djorkaeff-10
Josh Wolff-10

Wow, look at all those first round strikers. Who knew that college soccer was such a hotbed of goalscoring talent? The only striker taken in the first round to win the Golden Boot Award was Taylor Twellman in 2005. And even that in itself is suspicious because Twellman wasn't drafted directly out of college. He was a bench player in the Bundesliga before his arrival in 2002.

From the pool of first round strikers noted above, the average return on such high selections is 3.1 goals per season. That is hardly the output deserving of a certified super-sub, nevermind a highly-touted striker. Clearly, the league's general managers haven't been doing their homework.

But I have. And I'm going to be blunt: there is no such thing as a collegiate forward prospect. I'll type it again, this time in CAPS, for emphasis: THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A COLLEGIATE FORWARD PROSPECT.

I suspect that the thought process of drafting goalscorers high is relative to American thinking: an offensive player is the sexy pick. It's what the fans want. It looks good on paper. The fans love it. Everyone wins. But it's completely wrong.

Why? College players, in and of themselves, are inherently unpredictable. NCAA soccer, with its limited practice time, unlimited substitutions, and ambitious 2-3 matches/week schedule, falls flat on its face to replicate pro soccer. Compound that with the general difficulty that exists in developing strikers - not midfielders/forwards, not attacking midfielders, and definitely NOT defenders/forwards - and the selection of a collegiate striker in the first round is a loser's bet that every single MLS team has made.

Why are strikers, in general, so difficult to develop? Well, they are the only field players with quantifiable expectations. A defender isn't judged on clean tackles. A midfielder isn't judged on accurate passes. But strikers are always judged on their easy-to-find goal totals. As a result, they incur an exhorbitant amount of pressure to perform - perhaps moreso than any other player on the field, including the keeper.

And that is to say nothing of the physical abuse they receive every match. They are almost always double or triple-marked. As a result, they endure a great deal of physical punishment over a 30-game season. They often incur serious injuries along the way. The sum of their injuries often shave a substantial amount of time off their careers. In short, strikers simply do not stay healthy for very long.

Given these factors, it's nearly impossible to predict where most collegiate strikers will be in two years. Some, like Kljestan and the recently-retired Jay Heaps, will drift back and enjoy successful careers in the midfield or the defending third.

But for the most part, history has shown us that there is, indeed, no such thing as a collegiate forward prospect.

Sunday, December 30, 2007

It's Almost 2008 Rant

So I was at the local supermarket today, and while waiting in line for the requested deli meats at the delicatessen, I sampled what appeared to be a Nilla Wafer topped with a mocha-chocolate chip dip. It was delicious.

With the ball dropping just over 24 hours, I suppose it's time to lean back in the rocking chair, bind my hands together, and reflect upon the soon-to-expire 2007.

*Of all of my undertakings this year, my most rewarding one was unquestionably my Soccer Odyssey, and I knew it would be. As a soccer junkie, I lovingly embraced the idea of scouting new places to watch, breathe, and ultimately, finding myself in my element. Although I didn't make to all of the venues I had originally planned on, I was able to rest my weary bones and recline at the following locations:

India Point Park (Providence, RI)
Gano Street Park (Providence, RI)
Stevenson Field (Providence, RI)
National Soccer Hall of Fame (Oneonta, NY)
Pierce Field (East Providence, RI)
RIC Soccer Field (Providence, RI)
Gillette Stadium (Foxboro, MA)
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, MD)
Westside Athletic Complex (Danbury, CT)
RFK Stadium (Washington, DC)
Bryant University Track and Turf Complex (Lincoln, RI)
Rentscheler Field (Hartford, CT)


The typical mortal would say "egads, I'm exhausted." Not at all. If there were a match going on right now, in the dead of a punishing New England winter, I would bring a cannister of hot cocoa, and take my place at the top rung of the brutally cold metal bleachers for the entire ninety while my extremities endure the accompanying frostbite. I'm crazier about this game than Tom Cruise is about Scientology.

*Most memorable match: Little to no inner debate on this one. Hands down, it had to have been the WestConn-RIC Little East semi-final women's soccer match at Western Connecticut State University. Aside from the emotional attachment to my alma mater, the fourth-seeded Anchorwomen provided their own "Rudy" story when they stepped out onto the pitch with only two subs available against the perennial Little East powerhouse. Overmatched? Not on this night.

Although WestConn had beaten them to the scoreboard in the first half, the Anchorwomen responded with two goals of their own going into the 85th minute with victory in their sights. But a questionable call on the right channel of RIC territory led to WestConn's equalizer off the ensuring CK, tying the proceedings at two apiece. An exhausted RIC side braved through nearly 14 minutes of OT before they watched WestConn clinch the game-winner after 104 total minutes, with RIC giving it their absolute all to upset their opponents.

*Toughest match to watch: Revolution-DC on August 5th. I don't know if it was because of the heat, or partying like rock stars the night before, but the Revs were flatter than Paris Hilton. Nothing was working, and when it wasn't working, DC's Luciano Emilio made them pay, with two goals en route to his club's 3-0 victory. Perhaps the most disheartening aspect of the loss was the fact that the Revs, who had stood atop the Eastern Conference pinnacle for most of the season, we simply outclassed for the first time all summer. It was not pretty.

*Most impressive players: Jeffrey Gonsalves (Rhode Island Stingrays) and Kerry Donahue (Rhode Island College).

After a disappointing spring in which he was drafted by his hometown Toronto FC side, the former Rhody Ram was soon out of a job when injuries limited him in preseason training. So when he returned to RI to finish off his studies at URI, he also came back to his former PDL side and dominated. Ten goals, five assists in 14 games for the 'Rays left little doubt that Gonsalves has got the stuff to play professionally.

Donahue, a senior defender at RIC, was already known for her stellar play in the back with an all-conference selection in 2006. But she turned her game up another notch by scoring three goals, including a start at forward. Yet, her best match yet came when during the final match of her collegiate career against WestConn, where she absolutely shut down the lethal WestConn attack. It's said that the best players save their best when the stakes are at their highest, and Donahue proved this saying true, as she finished off her career with an exemplary performance in CT.

You're probably wondering why I started off this piece with my supermarket experience. Well, the Nilla Wafer is a metaphor (literally and figuratively) for this year. Like many of the matches I attended, they were new to me, there for the taking, completely free. After tasting the cookies with its delicate topping, I came away from it wanting more, much like all of the soccer I saw this year.

Hey, what where you throw those tomatoes!

Happy New Year everybody!

Thursday, November 29, 2007

Thursday morning...rant?

A couple of dangling thoughts this morning...

-After the MLS Cup back on the 18th, I thought I had seen my last live match until 2008. I was wrong.

Last night, I took a quick drive over the Washington Bridge and took in the Brown-Old Dominion second round NCAA Tournament match over on the East Side. I had never been to Brown to see soccer, but my first time there was a pretty memorable, despite the freezing temperatures (and the lack of hot beverages as regulation waned).

My first impression of top-tier NCAA soccer: astounding. Whether I just happened to be in the right place at the right time, or if this was typical of all tournament caliber sides (I'm leaning toward this theory), but every player was so technically sound that I almost thought I was watching an MLS match. If there was a weak link or player on the pitch, he disguised himself well. I mean really, I would have bet dollars to doughnuts that either OD or Brown could have easily bothered more than a handful of MLS sides that I won't mention right now. The action was extremely brisk and high-paced, surely benefitting the players who ran around the pitch surrounded by the chilly Providence air.

I missed the initial goal, which was scored by OD within the first fifteen, according to a fellow spectator to my right, as I stood atop a metal bleacher for the entire match. Brown equalized in the second half after a flurry of corners that finally struck gold when Kevin Davies converted a David Walls outswinger into paydirt. After regulation and a first overtime failed to separate the clubs, the match went into its second OT. Ambane Emmanuel broke through the backline and floated an impeccably weighted shot over the Brown keeper for the golden goal in the 107th.

Overall, it was a great to experience what it now likely to be the last live action I'll see until February, when Revolution try outs take place. The college crowd at major soccer colleges like Brown is lively and spirited, especially among the student section, which chanted "Let's go Bruno" and jeered the opponent throughout. In a remarkable contrast of crowd emotion, the place went almost dead silent after OD's golden goal. No boos, no howls...just stunned silence. It was as if someone had literally clicked the "mute" button on the remote.

Too bad it took me until the dead of autumn to discover Brown soccer. A wonderful squad (although no match in my heart for my beloved RIC sides) that I'll most certainly have to watch again next season.

-After watching consecutive Champions League matches (Manchester United-Sporting & Chelsea-Rosenborg), I almost forgot how much I associate CL matches with Christmas. I don't know what it is- perhaps it's a combination of that neon-lit multi-paneled shell of a ball that menaces the Bravia commercials (which amazingly fails in any attempt to be cheesy) and the time of the year invokes wonderful memories of Yuletide cheer and European football.

Speaking of Champions League, did you see that incredible Cristiano Ronaldo goal in extra time? From a free kick about 25 yards out, the Portuguese unleashed a fantastic curling ball that arched into the top far post for Manchester's game-winning goal. His reaction was hilarious...he shrugged his shoulders and sported a pseudo-frown like "that was nothing." Priceless.

Thursday, November 08, 2007

Goodbye, college soccer season...

It shouldn't be this difficult.

It's 10:21am on a November 8th morning, and I am in the very slow and deliberate process of peeling off the Rhode Island College men's and women's soccer schedules from my cubicle walls. Had I known how arduous an affair this was going to be, I would have avoided posting them on my walls back in late August.

Ok, so that's a straight lie. I would have done it anyway. It would have been futile to prevent.

Anyone who knows me is aware that a good chunk of my life revolves around the fixture lists of soccer clubs. So it was an impossible proposition for me not to put these schedules on the small walls at work. However, it definitely wasn't my intent to grow so attached to both clubs - especially the women's side, after getting to know many of the players' parents during the season.

These schedules afforded me many wonderful thoughts of escaping the office to the cozy confines of the RIC Soccer Field. In fact, each team's first home match of the season was brightly highlighted in yellow marker, signifying its importance for me to set aside all else and make it there. The first match wasn't the only ones classified as "important", mind you. I can recall many a time where things at work were hectic, only to glance back at the schedules, side by side, and take comfort in knowing that either team was playing within the coming hours/days. The promise of sunny afternoons and cool late evenings kept my spirits high through the late-summer, early-autumn workweek and following Saturday afternoons.

I've purposely delayed this unhappy task. Both teams’ seasons ended last week, thus rendering these lists obsolete. But now, as I ceremoniously peel the tape off these magical fixtures that opened the door to my wonderful fixation with college soccer, I cannot help but release a sigh of sadness.

Goodbye, college soccer season.

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Anchorwomen look primed for playoff action

Who: Rhode Island College Anchorwomen vs. Plymouth State University Panthers

When: October 30, 2007 at 3:30pm

Where: RIC Soccer Field, Providence, RI

Forecast: 62 degrees and sunny

The Little East Conference women's soccer semi-finals will pit the fourth-seeded Anchorwomen (9-8-1 overall, 4-3 conference) against the fifth-seeded Panthers (8-8, 3-4) on Tuesday, as both teams are coming off of very different season-finale results. RIC lost a 1-0 heartbreaker to sixth-place Southern Maine over the weekend, despite the promise of first-round playoff bye with a victory. PSU rode the wave of a three-match win streak that continued on Saturday with a resounding 5-0 result over UMass-Boston.


On paper, the Anchorwomen appear to be well tuned for the low-scoring protocol of playoff soccer. RIC only allowed one goal in its final four matches, due in large part to the defending corps led by senior co-captain Kerry Donahue, and the sensational goalkeeping of freshman Maddie Pirri (0.73 GAA). Up front, the Anchorwomen are no slouches either, with Lindsay Laurie and Brittney Godbout leading the way in goals with five apiece. Senior strikers Gina Calenda (4 G, 2 A) and Jessica Cardinal (4, 2 A), both of whom recorded ten points during the regular season, have undoubtedly bolstered the RIC attack this year.


Rest assured, Plymouth State won't simply bask on its postseason laurels. Although the Panthers allowed a whopping 40 goals in 16 matches this season, their aggressive attack is spearheaded by striker Alex Marcel, who led the team in goals (8) and points (18) and bettered the "one goal every other game" standard for strikers in fifteen matches. Additionally, striking partner Jamie Coombs chipped in five goals of her own, while Georgia Rooney (2 G, 7 A) held down a midfielding corps that scored a total of thirteen goals, giving PSU a well-rounded attack that can seemingly strike from anywhere.


During the regular season head-to-head match back on October 13th in Providence, the Anchorwomen dominated the first half, scoring two goals before halftime. But in the second half, the Panthers slowly crept right back to tie it at 2-2, and forced the match into overtime. It wasn't until Abby Hummel's strike toward the far post in the 94th minute that finally separated the clubs. Coincidentally, the overtime thriller clinched a playoff berth for the maroon and gold.


As with any playoff match, the x-factor will be defending, and the Anchorwomen appear to have the upper hand based on total goals allowed (29-40) throughout the season. Along with home field advantage, the Anchorwomen look primed to extend their season beyond October 30th.

Friday, September 14, 2007

Undefeated Wheaton pummels RIC Anchorwomen, 5-0

The Rhode Island College Anchorwomen were outshot 27-8 and simply outplayed by an imposing Wheaton College squad that scored five goals against them, as the home side lost 5-0 Thursday evening.

The Lyons came into Providence boasting an undefeated record (4-0-1), while the Anchorwomen attempted to earn their second win of the season after a tough loss to Clark University the prior weekend.

Right off the bat, the Lyons attacked often and early, and soon took the lead when Melida Alvarez scored in the 11th minute when she put the ball into the top corner of the net for the one-goal advantage.

RIC tried to keep it to a one-goal deficit while they attempted to find the equalizer, but the Anchorwomen were simply overwhelmed by the potent Wheaton attack that kept RIC keeper Krissi Pyzynski busy.

Near the half hour mark, Lyndsey McManus swept a free kick from 35 yards that connected with the boot of Jenna Rabeda as the ball flew into the back of the net for the two-goal Lyon lead.

With less than four minutes left in the half, the Lyons pounced again when Rabesa and Katie Watson collaborated on the design of an Emily Hough goal in the 42nd minute.

Down three goals entering the second half, the Anchorwomen tried to crack the scoreboard with a goal of their own, but were often too busy defending to mount any sort of lengthy attack. Barrie Lynsday took advantage of a tired defending corps and scored at the hour mark.

Though their efforts never subsided, RIC tried desperately to crack the egg residing under the "Home" label on the scoreboard with a couple of quick counterattacks late.

But Wheaton caught the Anchorwomen flat-footed deep in home end in the 82nd minute when Bailey Edwards floated a close-range shot amid a gaggle of players to give the Lyons the convincing five-goal win over the Anchorwomen.

House of Soccer Woman of the Match: Emily Hough (Wheaton), who came on as a substitute to score a goal and chalk up an assist.